A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers.” – Plato
Another Record 20 Years In The Making
Yes, I really have been doing this for 20 years, longer than 135 of you minions have been alive. If you’ve seen the video I recently posted on the Facebook page, you will note that I didn’t get that white beard from Hair Club for Men. As the quotable Charles Barkley once said, “Father time is still undefeated.” Still, even though I have been enabling this free-for-all for such a long time, I still can’t get over how large it has become. This year, once again, we have more entries than ever before, and I have you, the beloved minions of Jeff’s March Madness to thank for that. If you’re new to the contest, I hope you find it enjoyable and full of laughs. That is the point, after all – to have fun. So don’t get too worked up when your national champion goes down in a spectacular ball of flames in the second round, and your kid who can barely pronounce “back-et-ball” is 113 positions ahead of you in the standings. It’s ok. It’s just game.
On second thought, if winning isn’t everything, then why do we keep score? All right, then. Let’s get to it.
March Madness 2015: First Look
Now for a few thoughts and musings about the actual tournament itself, because, you know, while we’re having our fun little contest, a few basketball games are about to break out.
- “Kentucky or the field?” seems to be the question everyone is asking. Whether this Kentucky team really is as good as all the hype surrounding it remains to be seen. Former Indiana Pacers coach and current coach of SMU, Larry Brown, was quoted as saying that this Kentucky team would make the NBA playoffs in the Eastern Conference. I don’t know about that, but it is true that this team is likely the most dominant we’ve seen in a generation. That doesn’t mean they cannot be beaten in a single-game scenario, of course, but it seems to me that when the pundits on ESPN or CBS advance the notion that Kentucky can be had by the right team on the right night, it’s much ado about nothing. We need drama to make things interesting, but the fact is that this year’s tournament could be an exercise in the inevitable. Perhaps Coach Calipari said it best, and I’m paraphrasing here, when he said, “We don’t have substitutes. We have reinforcements, like tanks coming over the hill.” Indeed. The second five for Kentucky would likely qualify as a 4 or 5 seed all by themselves. Whether Kentucky’s dominance is good or bad for college basketball is a separate discussion, but the spectacle of seeing if they can do what hasn’t been done since 1976 – go undefeated – is sure to entertain.
- 11 is the new 12, at least that’s what I’m thinking when I look at this year’s most likely first round upsets. The success of 12s versus 5s is a well-rehearsed staple of tournament lore, and no doubt many of you minions have jumped in with both feet this year picking 2, 3, or even 4 of those trendy 12-seeds to win. But looking over this year’s crop of darling dozens, none of them really have a favorable match up. Buffalo faces perhaps the best 5 in years in West Virginia. Wofford will have its hands full with Arkansas, and it’s extremely unlikely that lightning will strike twice for Stephen F. Austin, who is seeded 12th for the second year in a row and pulled off the upset last year. They face a Utah squad that was second in the Pac-12. Then there’s Wyoming, the bid-stealing team from the Mountain West that came out of nowhere to win the conference tournament and deny a bid to Colorado State, Temple, or Murray State, depending on who you ask. The Cowboys suffered through a considerable portion of their season without their star player, Larry Nance Jr., who spent several weeks out of the lineup with mononucleosis. They have the best chance at an upset over Northern Iowa, another overachieving mid-major team and trendy sleeper pick for the Final Four. This is a game that, as ESPN’s Doug Gottlieb said, “Could set basketball back 40 years,” with the winner being the first one to reach 50 points. Anyway, as shaky as the 12s are this year, the 11s are proportionally strong. Texas, whom many felt didn’t even deserve an invite, could really give Butler a problem if they can overcome poor coaching and bad luck. They’ve lost 6 games by 6 points or less. If you watched any of the First Four match up between Ole Miss and BYU, then you’ll know why Xavier should be worried. Davidson no longer has NBA standout Stephen Curry, but they have a highly favorable match up against over-seeded Providence. Finally, the much-maligned UCLA Bruins shouldn’t be overlooked against Larry Brown’s relative newcomers, the SMU Mustangs. This is a game SMU should win, but UCLA has the potential to win…or get beat by 30. I won’t go so far as to say that I picked all four 11s (I didn’t), but I wouldn’t be surprised if, this year, 11 turns out to be the new 12.
- Lucky 13 – The 13 seeds had a 6-year winning streak snapped last year when no 13 seed managed to win a first round game. Can a 13 return to winning form this year? Keep your eye on perennial floppers Georgetown, a team ESPN’s “Giant Killers” analyst, Peter Keating, dubbed the “Worst Giant Ever”. Add to the mix that their 13-seeded opponent’s coach, Eastern Washington’s Jim Hayford, in a moment of Joe Namath hubris, guaranteed a win over Georgetown in an interview session with the media, and you have a deliciously maddening first-round showdown.
- And finally, a word on Tom Izzo, the Bill Belichick of March Madness, only everyone loves him, and he’s not a cheater. Sparty is back this year as a 7 seed, and I pity the fool that takes them lightly. While not exactly a Cinderella, could we possibly be looking at a second year in a row where a 7 seed makes the Final Four? Last year 7 seed UConn made history by being the first ever 7 seed to make the Final Four (and go on to win the title, by the way), and while I don’t expect Michigan State to go quite THAT far this year, a Final Four run wouldn’t surprise me at all. Never bet against Tom Izzo in March.
By The Numbers
This is going to feel like deja vu all over again, but as was the case last year and many years before, let’s get things started with the obligatory March Madness “by the numbers”. I know you all want me to hurry up and get to the alias awards, and I will, but these things take time. How quickly can you process 700+ quips, puns, and obscure cultural references? I need to hire a staff.
- 753 – Total number of entries in this year’s contest, the most ever!
- 171 – Number of rookies in this year’s contest. Welcome!
- 1 – Number of years since a team finished the regular season undefeated. Wichita State did it last year.
- 39 – Number of years since said undefeated team finished the job and won the national championship, the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers.
- 5 – Number of Indiana schools in this year’s tournament, all in the same region (Midwest). This is also how many MORE Indiana teams than there were last year. Do the math.
- 0 – Number of games a 16 seed has won in the history of the 64-team tournament.
- 4 – Number of games 16 seeds will win this year…said no one ever!
- 53 – Number of contestants who entered the contest in the last two hours. Nothing like waiting until the last minute.
- 1 – Number of minions who picked the not-so-creative “all-upset” bracket, choosing the lower seed to win every game. There’s one every year.
- 2 – Number of minions who picked the “weenie” bracket, choosing the favorite to win every game. Safe, but not very interesting.
- 439 – Number of contestants who made at least one pick that is eligible for the all-important Scategories bonus.
- 2 – Number by which one must multiply Hampton’s wins for the season to equal those of its first round opponent, Kentucky.
- 90 – Number of inches needed to measure the height of the tournament’s tallest player, UC-Irvine’s Mamadou Ndiaye.
- 7 – Number of teams from the B1G (pronounced “Big 10”) and the Big 12 in this year’s tournament, the most of any conferences.
- 14 – Number of teams in the B1G and Atlantic 10 conferences.
- 10 – Number of teams in the Big 12 conference.
- 12 – Number of teams in the Pac 12 conference.
- 1 – Number of conferences with Presidents who can count.
Quick Awards
Before I let mundane things like actually watching a basketball game or work interrupt my commentary, I’ll hand out a few awards.
- The Top Recruiter award goes to the gang from Cru Digital Strategies, the private group with the most members this year (32). Honorable mention goes to Gull Rock with 30 and Calvary Christian with 29.
- The Boneheaded Play of the Day award is strangely awarded before any games have actually been played. It goes to Georgia State coach Ron Hunter who reportedly blew up his Achilles tendon whilst celebrating his team earning their automatic bid to the tournament. Ironically, Georgia State is where former Louisville standout Kevin Ware ended up after his gruesome leg injury nearly ended his career. Go easy on the legs, boys.
- The Little Pig, Little Pig, Let Me In! award goes to frequent contestant Ben McCann, who procrastinated a little too long this year and ended up being locked out. Sorry, Ben. At least you can still enjoy the commentary.
Ok, minions, I know this was brief, but I need to turn my attention toward other matters for a little while. Have no fear. There will be much more commentary, including the much-anticipated alias awards, later today.
Until then,
The Wizard of Whiteland