Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Results

That’s all I have to say, especially to those folks who heeded my admonition that “it has never happened that all four 1’s advance to the Final Four”.  I’ve been watching this tournament a long time, and I do not ever recall seeing a collection of top seeds so much in a class by themselves with respect to the rest of the field.  After so many first and second round thrillers, the vast majority of the third round and regional final games were utter blowouts.  Only Xavier over West Virginia in OT and, tonight, Kansas over Davidson were games that I didn’t half sleep through.

The scoring graphic read DAVID and KANSAS, but it should have said DAVID and GOLIATH.  This incarnation of David nearly lived up to the name.  In between sharing pizza and fellowship with 13 of the finest 7th and 8th graders on the planet (props to my small group, yo!), I was able to watch most of the first half and the final 4 minutes of this game.  Kansas coach Bill Self, loosely quoted, said before the game, “Anyone who thinks Davidson is an underdog is fooling himself.”  No kidding.  In case you missed it, Kansas was up 2 with about 16 seconds to play.  Davidson had the ball.  Unfortunately, when this David reached into the bad, all the stones were gone.  The amazing Stephen Curry passed up what appeared to be a golden opportunity to drive the lane for the tying score, opting to head back out for the winning three.  Kansas recovered their double team, and Curry could not get open.  He passed to Richards, who took an NBA three-pointer at the buzzer that barely drew rim.  Game over.  Kansas survives, and I do mean survives.

“All too easy,” said Darth Vader in The Empire Strikes Back.  That’s exactly how I feel about this year’s Final Four.  Normally, I would give an award to anyone who picked all four Final Four teams correctly with original picks.  This year, that list contains a ridiculous 41 names!  Throw in the folks who got all four via the re-pick round, and the list grows to 63.  Go look it up yourself.  I’m not giving no stinking award to 41 people.  Hmph.

The We Don’t Need No Stinking Free Throws award goes to the Memphis Tigers, who seem to be proving that you do not need at least nominal free throw shooting to win tournament games.  Why would you when you can dunk your way to a 30-point halftime lead?  These guys are monsters.  They took a very good Texas team and made them look like a 16 seed.  And speaking of monsters…

Somebody take away the Miracle Gro from Tyler Hansbrough.  This guy gets the Energizer Bunny award; he just keeps going, and going, and going, and going. 

Three in a row – that’s how many Final Fours UCLA has appeared in.  That’s impressive on any level.  The last two years this really ugly dude named Joakim Noah got in their way.  I’m not sure they’ll fair much better against the aforementioned collection of ugly dudes from Memphis, but this year they do have their own version of Big Ugly, a 6-foot-everything great white behemoth named Love.  I’m telling you, folks, when these two teams meet next Saturday, the backboards might explode.

Clash of the Titans.  Immovable objects and irresistible forces.  Pull out your favorite cliche.  They all apply.  How do you pick a winner from among such a fearsome group of foes?  My pick was Kansas from the beginning, more because I wanted to differentiate from all the folks on the UNC bandwagon than because I thought Kansas was actually the best.  Any of these four teams could win it.  Any of them would deserve it.  Let’s hope these last three games are competitive and entertaining.

And now, for the Round 4 Awards

The Southern Hospitality award goes to three contestants who picked all 15 games in the South regional correctly with original picks: Amanda Barton, Jim Buchanan, and Tony Caraway.  Incidentally, these three are the only folks who picked any of the four regions perfectly with original picks.

The Mulligan Award goes to two contestants who picked all 15 games in the East regional correctly, but needed at least one changed pick in the re-pick round to do it: Bryson Davis and TJ Niksich.

The Wild, Wild, West award, sponsored by Will Smith, goes to three contestants who managed 13 wins with their original picks in this difficult region: Jeremy Bolin, Stan Hand, and Robert Tipton.

The You Must Have Had An Easy Button award, sponsored by Staples, goes to Jason Ritchie and Trevis Litherland, both of whom picked an amazing 13 games correctly with original picks in the very difficult Midwest region.  Throw in the re-picks, and Trevis missed only one game in the Midwest.  This is probably why he’s also in second place.

The One And Done award goes to Bob Hillman, who “accomplished” the incredible feat of winning one, solitary game in the South regional with original picks.

It’s one thing to lose all or most of one’s Final Four in early rounds of the contest, which some folks did and always do.  It’s quite another to have your Final Four teams make it to the Elite Eight only to lose en masse.  This year’s Schleprock award goes to two contestants who picked three out of four losers for the Final Four: Scott Bauer (Louisville, Texas, Xavier) and David Ayres (Louisville, Texas, Davidson).  Tough luck, fellas.

The Jimmy Neutron award for childhood genius goes to five kids who picked the Final Four correctly with original picks: Amber Little,Matthew Barndt, Devan Bailey, Andrew Barndt, and Zoey Glassley.  HOPEFULLY…none of these “kids” are really their parents in disguise. 🙂

And finally, it’s only fair to recognize our continuing contest leader, Robert “Smoke” Tipton, with the Up In Smoke award, given in honor of the fact that his national champion, Texas, went down in flames today.  With only a two-point lead over Trevis Litherland and his brainy bracketology program, it is unlikely that Smoke will hold on to win.

With 63 folks who can still win the remaining three games, there will definitely be some shuffling in the upper 100 before the final scores are tallied.  Time, once again, to take a deep breath and get back to real life.  Until we meet again on Final Four Saturday, this is Jeff the exasperated contest manager saying, “Some day, I’m going to win this thing.”

1 thought on “Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Results

  1. Sadly, I missed all the excitement in the Davidson game — I picked Kansas, but would have
    been happy to have seen Davidson win.

    And so, there we have it: 4 #1 seeds in the Final Four. I think I’ve
    said something along the following lines before, but here it is, with
    the 2008 results included. Let me know if my source numbers are in error.

    42 of the 4 x 24 = 96 #1 seeds have made it to the Final Four in the
    64-team era. That’s 43.75% of them (a bit less often than I
    typically project). More precisely, we have the following breakdown:

    0 #1 seeds: 1 time (2006)
    1 #1 seeds: 9 times (last time: 2004)
    2 #1 seeds: 10 times (last time: 2007)
    3 #1 seeds: 3 times (1993, 1997, and 1999)
    4 #1 seeds: 1 time (2008, of course)

    The mean number of #1 seeds in the Final Four is 1.75 (=42/24).

    We can then estimate that

    1) The probability that ALL FOUR #1 SEEDS make it to the Final Four
    is approx.(0.4375)^4, or only about 3.7% of the time.

    2) The probability that NONE OF THE FOUR #1 SEEDS makes it to the
    Final Four is approx. (1-0.4375)^4, or about 10.0% of the time.

    3) The expected number of years between occurrences of an ALL #1
    SEED FINAL FOUR is approx. 1/(0.4375)^4, or about 27.3 years.
    Thus, it’s about typical that we’ve waited until now to see it
    happen.

    Enough geekin’ out. One thing is for certain: it should be a
    memorable Final Four, with four very solid teams (modulo Memphis
    and the Free Throws) vying for the prize.

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