The Wizard, MIA?
I hope no one was overly disappointed when the expected commentary did not arrive in your inbox this morning. I had more important priorities to attend to last night and today, but better late than never, right?
Deja Vu All Over Again – The prevailing drama of this year’s tournament marches on with yet another stunning victory by the closest thing to Cinderella we can find this year, the Michigan State Spartans. It may seem ridiculous to label a 2 seed an underdog, but when you consider that the Big Ten was viewed as inferior to the Big East, andthat Sparty has beaten two number one seeds from the Big East so far, assigning the role of giant killer to the Big Green Big Ten Machine is not all that inappropriate. If the path Michigan State has followed to the brink of an NCAA championship seems familiar, it should. The 1997 Arizona Wildcats defeated three different number 1 seeds on their way to an improbable national championship. They are the last and only team to do so. For Michigan State to win the championship this year, they must repeat that feat. Having already defeated Big East number 1’s Louisville and Connecticut, one more stands their way, the mighty North Carolina Tarheels.
The Odds Are In Their Favor – If the Spartans have arrived on the doorstep of glory by beating the odds, the Tarheels have arrived by living up to them. The overwhelming favorite in every game they have played so far, they have yet to win a game by any margin other than double digits. They took their toughest test, the Oklahoma Sooners, and made it look relatively easy. Villanova looked panicked and desperate the entire game on Saturday night. An enduring image of that desperation in my mind is the Villanova player grabbing Tyler Hansbrough’sarm and rotating it to show the official where he was bleeding so that he would have to leave the game. What fascinates me about the UNC-Michigan State match-up is that both teams have found ways to win, and in convincing fashion, regardless of what approach opponents have taken to stopping them, and in spite of who among their top performers were ineffective on any particular night. Nevertheless, the odds, the statistics, and the numbers are all in North Carolina’s favor. Seven of the last ten champions were number 1 seeds, and only six champions since 1990 have not been top seeds. Just before this year’s tournament began, ESPN published an article detailing eight statistical factors shared by something like 19 of the last 20 NCAA champions. Only two teams satisfied all eight criteria in this year’s field of 64: Louisville and North Carolina.
A Few Awards
I’ll give out just a few awards tonight, with the awards grand finale coming after tomorrow night’s championship game.
The Deuces Wild Award goes to 15 contestants who, much to my surprise, picked both national semi-final winners correctly with original picks: Laura Ramirez, Grant McCleary, John McCleary, Chris Randazzo, Dave Moritz, Connie Randazzo, Heather Schafer, Randal Ferguson, Lindsey Fish, Veronica Ramirez, Amy Dailey, Corey Davis, Mike Adorno, Scott Whitlow, and Vincent Randazzo. I can’t decide if this list looks more like a mobster family catalog or a collection of feuding families from the hills of West Virginia.
The You Called It Award goes to Amy “Movin’ On Up” Dailey, whose recently adjusted alias is indicative of her performance. Amy has moved on up from 443rd to 45th in the contest with one more win still within reach.
The Just In The Case The Rest Of Us Can Neither Read Nor Count Award goes to 4th-place contestant Evan Gidley who set his alias to … “4th Place”.
Finally, I have two awards for the current contest leader, Mike Brown – the Enjoy It While It Lasts Award and the Either You Miscalculated, Or You Didn’t Read All The Scoring Rules Award. Mike’s alias leads us to believe that if Michigan State wins the championship, Mike will hold on to his first place position and win the contest. This would be true if Mike’s closest pursuer who picked Michigan State, Ken “Jordan Whine” Jordan, would receive only 10 points for a Michigan State victory. There is one important detail Mike has missed – the Ultimate Scategories Bonus! That’s right, the Scategories Bonus, awarded when the number of contestants who make a correct pick for a particular game falls beneath a certain percentage (known only to the Wizard) of the total contestants participating. According to the rules, this amazing, yet rarely awarded bonus is available for any game in the tournament, including the championship game. Let me refresh everyone’s memory. The bonus is three times the normal point value for the game. Therefore, there are 17 contestants who picked Michigan State to win it all (with an original pick) who stand to score 30 points if they pull it off. One of those 17 is Jordan Whine.
So, just as March Madness ultimately comes down to a contest between two teams in which there can be only one winner, so our March Madness contest comes down to two contestants who have an opportunity to win: Joe “Pappy Joe Hoosier” Jenkins, who picked North Carolina, and the aforementioned Ken “Jordan Whine” Jordan, who picked the beloved Spartans. So there you have it, Tarheels or Spartans, Pappy Joe or Whine. Tune in tomorrow night and root accordingly. As an aside, if Michigan State pulls off the miracle, not only will we have a new contestant in first place, but the top five contestants will all be different than they are today when the nets come down.
Here’s hoping for a competitive championship game. As they say on Around The Horn, I’ll be back after a 23 1/2 hour break.
The Wizard of Whiteland