“I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” – Isaac Newton

Regression Toward The Mean

It’s a principle referenced mostly by statisticians which essentially means, “The law of averages always wins in the end.”  In yesterday’s assortment of eight games we saw only one upset.  In today’s batch we got only three favorites advancing, and one of those was Kansas State’s victory over UMBC.  I spent most of the day playing golf, not watching basketball, but I did manage to catch the conclusion of most of today’s shocking upsets.

• UMBC Loses, But Who Cares? – Even the Kansas State players stood and applauded the UMBC starters as they were finally pulled from the game in the closing seconds.  The game announcers reported that K State coach Bruce Weber dragged his team out of bed after curfew on Friday night, not because he wanted them to see the team they’d be facing tonight, but because he wanted them to witness history.  The initials UMBC will live forever.
• Purdue Survives – The Isaac Haas-less Boilermakers needed the whole game to survive the Butler Bulldogs and advance to the Sweet Sixteen.  Dakota Mathias hit a three in the closing seconds to seal the victory.
• Hold That Tiger – The battle of the Tigers went to Clemson in a good old fashioned country butt whoopin’.  It was a 31-point victory over the Auburn Tigers.  Ouch!  Somewhere Sir Charles Barkley is covering his head in a paper sack.  Speaking of butt whoopin’s…
• No Repeat This Year – Texas A&M crushed defending champion North Carolina by 21 points.  This is the game I half-watched at dinner in utter disbelief between bites of my French Quarter Pasta.  Oh, and speaking of dinner…
• Guess Who’s Coming To Dinner – After our round of golf today, we asked the staff at the course what was good to eat in this particular suburb of Orlando.  They all recommended a place called Nona Blue near Lake Nona.  Now, if you know anything about professional golf or Orlando, you will know that Lake Nona is a place many pro golfers call home.  It turns out this particular restaurant is owned by pro golfer Graeme McDowell, a fact we suspected but were uncertain of as we found our way there.  Upon arrival, sure enough, there was a display case just inside the door with some of McDowell’s memorabilia.  As I was perusing the collection, one member of our crew said, “Isn’t that him right there?”  Thinking he was talking about a picture in the trophy case, I honestly thought that was a dumb question.  But no, he meant Graeme McDowell was sitting RIGHT THERE, not 10 feet from us at the bar with his wife.  Sure enough, it was him.  Another member of our crew who’s teenage son is a big fan even got a picture and an autograph.  Cool stuff.  The food was good, too.
• Syracuse Wins Again – In a rather annoying turn of events, the Syracuse Orange, who seem to perennially underachieve during the season, controversially get a bid to the tournament, and then overachieve in the tournament to silence the naysayers (like me), remained true to form by dispatching #3 seed Michigan State.  If my memory serves, this marks the fourth time a First Four team has advanced to the Sweet Sixteen.  How does Syracuse do it?  I have a theory.  The teams in Syracuse’s league play them often enough to not be stymied, confused, or intimidated by their zone defense.  But when Syracuse gets to the tournament, they face teams who do not play them regularly, and those teams simply cannot solve that zone.  It happened to IU, you remember, the team with Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller.  If they can get you to pass the ball around the perimeter and settle for a three point jump shot, they have you right where they want you.  You have to attack that zone, which I know is easy to say and perhaps hard to do.  I am just frankly surprised that Tom Izzo couldn’t manage to get the job done with his team.
• Lightning Strikes Twice AGAIN? – It was not a good day to be from Cincinnati.  What are the chances of both Cincinnati schools losing on the same night at the same site?  That is precisely what happened, back to back, no less, in the same building, AND they both lost huge leads in epic meltdowns.  The Music City was not playing their song.  First there was Cincinnati, who squandered a 22-point second half lead to Nevada, then there was Xavier, who lost a more modest 11-point lead to Florida State.  Foul trouble was a factor in both games, but especially for Cincinnati when Jaron Cumberland fouled out with 4 minutes left and the Bearcats up by just 6.
• Take Me Home, Country Road – The final game of the night is just wrapping up, and it is about the only normal thing that has happened all night.  It didn’t occur to me until I saw an interview with the Governor of West Virginia, but both of these schools, West Virginia and Marshall, are in the same state.  Apparently, this is the first time the two teams have played each other.  I am not sure if that’s just in basketball or in any sport, but I doubt Marshall will be signing up for a rematch anytime soon.  This one was never competitive.
• Another One Is Done! – Xavier’s loss marks the second #1 seed to lose before we even got to the Sweet Sixteen.  The entire left side of the bracket is in shambles.  Think about who is left in the South region for a moment: Kansas State, Kentucky, Loyola-Chicago, and Nevada!  I do not keep track of such things in detail, but this certainly feels like one of the craziest opening weekends of a tournament in recent memory.  The year 2000 may rival it when two #8 seeds made the Final Four.  Never has the re-pick round been more needed in the contest.  More on that in a minute.
• The Scategories Bonus Comes In To Play – Naturally, those who picked UMBC earned an extra 3-point Scategories bonus for that game.  However, we also had two 6-point Scategories bonuses awarded in round two for those who had Kansas St. and Syracuse making it to the Sweet Sixteen.

Round Two Awards

• There were a total of six upsets out of 16 games in round two.  The Upset Stomach award, sponsored this time by Alka Seltzer, goes to Paula Novak and Monica Muschalik who correctly picked four out of the six (and not the same four, by the way).
• The I Told You So award goes to all-upsets picker Matthew Hickey, who didn’t win a single game in the second round.
• The Darth Vader Says, “Impressive” award goes to Paula Novak (again) and Nathan Kimbrell who each picked a rather amazing 11 of the Sweet Sixteen correctly.  Given the number of insane outcomes so far this year, that’s not bad at all.
• The Still In The Hunt award goes to now 2nd place contestant Veronica Ramirez who still has all four of her Final Four in the tournament.  The plot thickens.
• The I Love This Awesome Scoring System award goes to Dave “Wakawaka” Barndt, the highest ranking minion with a winning percentage below .500.  Dave is currently in 12th.
• The Hot 100 award goes to Giuseppe DiIulio simply for being in 100th place.
• The It’s Never As Bad As It Seems award goes to Bob Johnson who lost his national champ early (Arizona) but is still in 13th place.
• The Denial Is Not Just A River In Egypt award goes to last place contestant Scott “No second picks needed” Moore.  If anyone needs the repicks, it’s Scott.
• The That’s What You Get For Picking The Teams You’re Rooting For award goes to Luke Furr, currently in 258th.  Luke is an IU guy, which makes him a B1G guy, which prompted him to put Ohio State and Michigan State in the Final Four.  See the re-pick instructions below, Luke.
• Finally, the Mr. Miaggi Say “You beginner luck” award goes to contest leader and contest rookie Paula “Cookie Monster” Novak.  Paula leads by six points, has seven of her Elite Eight and all four Final Four teams still in the tournament.  Treat yourself to some cookies, Paula.

The Re-pick Round Has Begun!

Before I close this edition of the commentary, let me remind you that the re-pick round has now officially begun. This is a critical component of Jeff’s March Madness Contest, one that you will ignore at your peril. While it is true that some of you are in a position where no amount of re-picking can win the contest for you, we have certainly had instances in the past where people LOST the contest because they failed to take advantage of the re-picks. Why have re-picks?  I’m glad you asked. It is simply to keep people interested and rooting for teams for the remainder of the tournament no matter how good or how poorly they have done so far.

IMPORTANT: Everything you need to know to make your re-picks can be found on the website here.  Please read these instructions care – full – ly. I know the process is a tad confusing. That is why I have written such detailed instructions. I wish I could make it simpler, and perhaps some day I will, but for now, please check the instructions, paying particular attention to step #2.  Step #2 describes the part of the re-pick process about which I get the most questions every year. Of course you are welcome to email me if you still have questions or can’t figure out what is going on with the re-picks. The deadline to complete your re-picks is 7:00 PM EDT on Thursday.

With that, dear minions, it is time for the Wizard to shift attention away from hoops and toward another round ball – the little white one with dimples – for a few days.  If you have any issues this week with your re-picks, send me email. If you forgot your password, use the “I forgot my password link” available on the page where you enter your password to change your picks.  I will see you again Thursday night.

The Wizard of Whiteland

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