March Madness, Larry Bird Style

I’ve got a theory that if you give 100% all of the time, somehow things will  work out in the end. – Larry Bird

Puns Abound

With a name like The Shockers, opportunities for puns abound.  How shocking is Wichita State’s run to the Final Four?

  • The Shockers are the first 9 seed to reach the Final Four since 1979 and the first to do so since the tournament expanded to 64 teams.
  • They are also the first team from the Missouri Valley Conference to reach the Final Four since the same year, 1979, when Indiana State did it.  You might have heard of that team’s superstar player, Larry Bird.
  • The Shockers probably didn’t gain much respect until they manhandled Ohio State this evening.  Their path before that went through an unimpressive Pitt, a Gonzaga team most thought didn’t deserve a #1 seed (a suspicion most considered validated by Wichita State’s win), and a LaSalle team that, honestly, had spent all its March Madness Magic already.  But this win over Ohio State should silence the naysayers.  The Shockers are a true Cinderella, but they are not to be taken lightly.  They rebound well.  They are tough.  They can shoot, and when they hit a hot streak, they can shoot the lights out.

OK, That Was Ugly

I don’t have much to say about Syracuse’s punishing win over Marquette.  It was ugly.  It was boring.  It may have been the most un-fun basketball game I’ve ever half-watched.  I suppose I should be impressed with the Orange’s stifling zone defense, but frankly, I’m more disgusted with Marquette’s rank inability to score points (and the “rank” pun is most certainly intended).  Thirty-nine points in an entire NCAA tournament game, in the Elite Eight, no less, is … I don’t know what that is.  If you have an apt description, let me know.

Fruit Basket Turnover

Today’s games really shook up the standings, and due to the remaining possibilities of some really high point value Scategories bonuses, it is not clear who has the upper hand just yet.  I love this contest!

  • The Most Irritating Use Of A Worn Out Knock-Knock Joke award goes to Shane “ORANGE you glad you didn’t pick IU?” Rose.  Shane is from New York, which is part of what makes it so irritating.  Shane is in 10th place, which is even worse.
  • The Lone Ranger award goes to Chelsea “Punkin Doodle” Goodwin, the only, solitary contestant who picked Wichita State to make the Final Four with an original pick.  This feat vaulted Chelsea from 49th to 5th place.
  • The It IS Easter Season After All award goes to Doug “It would take a miracle” Goodwin.  Perhaps his prayers have been answered.  Doug climbed from 652nd to 35th and is well positioned for the remainder of the contest.
  • The It Was Fun While It Lasted award goes to Tammy Stewart who spent all of two hours in first place after Syracuse beat Marquette.  That is because she was quickly replaced by…
  • Tyler Drone, current contest leader and winner of the Best Correlation Between Last Name And Winning Team’s Mascot award.  (Get it – Drone – Shockers.  They’re bees.  Never mind.)

Two more games tomorrow (today, actually, but I digress), and the good news is, I have tickets to the Louisville-Duke match-up.  I’ll be back tomorrow evening with a full report and the Final Four awards.

The Wizard of Whiteland

Contest Home Page

Atlanta or Bust

The nice part about being a pessimist is that you are constantly being either proven right or pleasantly surprised. – George Will

Crazy Eights

With the field now being whittled down to eight, here is a smattering of data ranging from the interesting to the arcane.

  • Ones Done? – Only one top seed remains, tournament overall #1 Louisville, who is yet to be seriously challenged in three games.  While it is relatively common for a Final Four to contain just one #1 seed, a Final Four with none of the #1 seeds is relatively rare.  It has only happened twice in the 64 team era, curiously, both in the last seven years (’06,’11).
  • Dial 3-2-1 For This Conference Call – The Elite Eight is comprised of three teams from the Big East, two teams from the Big Ten, and one each from the ACC, SEC, and MVC (who?!!!).  The Pac-12, Mountain West, Atlantic 10, and Big 12 have all been eliminated.
  • Oh Ye of Little Faith – One of the things the contest makes rather obvious is which teams were viewed as favorites and which ones were viewed as long shots.  For example, a quick look at the possible remaining Scategories bonus report shows that no matter who wins the game between Syracuse and Marquette, a handful of contestants will win a Scategories bonus.  Wichita State has one, solitary believer (speaking of original picks, of course) among 661 contestants, a true Scategories pick if they happen to win.  All of the other five teams had enough support to push them out of the Scategories range.  But here’s the kicker.  Of the eight teams remaining, exactly half qualify for the Ultimate Scategories Bonus, i.e., for winning a national championship.  I’m talking about Syracuse, Florida, Marquette, and Michigan.  Not a soul picked Wichita State to win it all with an original pick.  Louisville, Duke, and Ohio State were all much more popular picks for national champion.
  • This Tournament Is Still For The Birds – As far as team name/mascot goes, the only categories with winning records are the Birds (14-5), Colors (4-1), Demonic Powers (3-1), Military (5-4), Natural Phenomena (3-2), Rodents (4-3), and Insects (3-0).  The Elite Eight is comprised of two birds, a demon, an insect, a nut, a rodent, a reptile, and a color.  Quite an eclectic group, don’t you think?

Game Thoughts

  • It Was The Best Game I Never Watched – Due to Good Friday service at the church, I didn’t get to see any of what was apparently the most exciting game of the tournament so far.  I am referring to Michigan’s apparently epic comeback against Kansas, which provided us with this year’s first and only overtime game.  Give the Red Dawn award to the gang from Ann Arbor.  Not bad for a bunch of kids.
  • The Feathers Flew – And Louisville emerged victorious in the the battle of the birds.  I didn’t see any of this game, either, but I get the impression it was never close.
  • The Duke of…Indy? – Now this game my wife, Heather, and I actually saw in person.  (The Generosity award goes to non-contestants Nick & Sarah Gay whose wedding I performed on Friday night of March Madness opening weekend and who gave us the tickets.)  The game was competitive until about 10 minutes to go when Michigan State seemed to forget the point of the game is to put the ball in the basket.  Duke put on a clinic of how to win in the NCAA tournament by hitting 92% of its free throws.  Duke’s Seth Curry was on fire and had 29 points on 8-17 shooting.  The David Copperfield Award For Absolute Incredulity has to go Sparty, as I watched them foul Duke with less than 10 seconds left on the shot clock on three consecutive defensive possessions.  Nobody is going to pay me millions to coach a college basketball team, but I still think it’s pretty clear that toward the end of the game especially, you either foul early in the shot clock or not at all.
  • Florida Refuses To Make History – At first it seemed as though Florida Gulf Coast might do the outrageously impossible.  (They had already done the impossible by advancing to the Sweet 16 as a 15 seed.)  They had a sizable lead early in this game.  No way was Florida going to be the next team guilty of not taking the Eagles seriously, though.  They did what FGCU’s first two opponents failed to do, and that is get a lead and then put the hammer down on defense.  FGCU is a lot like the Colts of a few years ago – fast, athletic, prolific scorers, but built to play with the lead and not necessarily to come from behind.  It’s hard to view FGCU’s tournament run as anything other than a colossal success.  This puts them squarely on the basketball map, and they will reap benefits for years to come.

Round 3 Awards

Enough blibber blabber.  Time for a few awards.

  • The Top Prognosticator award goes to two contestants who got 6 of the Elite 8 correct with their original picks: Tyler Rubach and John Wilcox.  Honorable mention goes to Anna Deaver, Madeline Muschalik, and Jane Gomez for getting 7 out of 8 with the benefit of the re-picks.
  • The Downward Spiral award goes to Austin Stickney who has fallen from a high to 64th to a low of 554th.  This could have something to do with the fact that he failed to re-pick.
  • The And The Horse You Road In On award goes to Caroline “Beating the Pants Off Anthony Randazzo” Modarressy-Tehrani, currently in 66th place.  That sounds intensely personal to me.
  • The Genesis 3:10 award goes to now de-pantsed Anthony Randazzo.  Current Rank: 336.
  • The It May Be Wayne’s World, But It’s Your Contest award goes to Traci “Wayne’s World” Murray, owner of 48th place and a commanding lead over her husband, Wayne Murray.
  • The Clueless award, sponsored by Alicia Silverstone, goes to Nicholette “haven’t a clue” Fraser, sole owner of last place.
  • The Sesame Street award goes to Blake “G is for Gonzaga” Dieringer.  You can beat me at PIG, but you’re 400+ places behind me in the contest.
  • The Botanical Garden Award For Utter Redundancy goes to Isaac “Isaac couch” Couch.  Isaac sits in the median rank of 331st.
  • The Wishful Thinking award goes to John “Check out my bracket…[ I WIN!” Lederman.  While clever, that alias does not change the fact that John nis now in 258th place.
  • And finally, the Leader Of The Band award goes to Anna “One, Anna Two…” Deaver, sole possessor of first place.  Anna unseated previous leader Josh “The punisher” Paddack.  Since the contest got beyond 16 games placed, we have had six different contest leaders.  Congratulations to 8-year-old Anna.  Let’s see if she can hold it through the weekend.

I know I should probably give out more awards, but if tired were measured in people, I’d be India.  I’ll be back tomorrow with another quick commentary, followed by the Final Four roundup on Sunday night and another barrage of wacky awards.  Until then, Happy Easter to you all!

The Wizard of Whiteland

Contest Home Page

March Sadness

Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are more pliable. – Mark Twain

By The Numbers

After careful consideration of all the relevant statistics, I made my re-picks.  Tonight I went 1-4, lost two of my Final Four, and my National Champ.  Stick a fork in me.  I am done, which is probably just as well, as it gives me more time to focus on the commentary and giving the rest of you folks hard-earned awards.

  • IU vs Syracuse – I don’t want to talk about it.
  • Shocking Statistic – The Missouri Valley Conference is 4-1 and has a representative in the Elite Eight, the Wichita State Shockers.  Wichita is the first 9 seed to make the Elite Eight in 19 years.
  • Conference Counts – Besides the aforementioned MVC, the Big Ten is 11-4 and has 3 teams remaining.  The Big East is 8-5 and also has 3 teams remaining.  The Pac-12 is 5-4 and has 2 teams remaining.
  • Who’s Number 1? – Half of the Elite Eight is now determined, and we have a 2, a 3, a 4, and a 9.  Conspicuously missing are #1 Gonzaga, whom many whined didn’t deserve a number 1 seed; #1 Indiana, whom many whined deserved the #1 overall seed; and #2 Miami, whom many whined deserved the #1 seed that Gonzaga didn’t deserve.
  • Lightning Strikes Twice – For the second straight game, Ohio State won on a three point shot with two seconds or less to play, avoiding both over time and defeat.
  • Zero – That’s how many of the first 52 games of this year’s March Madness have gone into overtime.  Try as I might, I could not find a statistic that would tell me if that is unprecedented.  If you can find it, send me email or post on the Facebook page.
  • IU vs Syracuse – Ok, I will talk about the IU debacle.  Any person with two eyes and half a brain could see that Indiana’s Cody Zeller was getting mauled near the basket all night long, mostly with no fouls called.  A quick look at the box score shows 18 fouls called against Indiana and 17 called against Syracuse.  This may lead one to believe that the game was called “evenly”, but these stats can be misleading.  Elias doesn’t keep stats on fouls that were not called but should have been.  This is two consecutive games in which one of the most prolific scoring teams in the nation has been held to a point total in the 50s.  My observation of this year’s tournament is that this has become something of an epidemic.  Games may be called “evenly” in terms of number of fouls called on both teams, but there is way, way, WAY too much fouling going on.  Games are low scoring and, frankly, no fun to watch, and we have to listen to Vern and Raf pontificate on how good of a defense the dominant team is playing.  Naismith must be turning over in his grave.  Anyway, the officiating is NOT why Indiana lost this game.  They could not solve the zone.  The Hoosiers shot an abysmal 33% from the field, 20% from 3-point range, and a nauseating 62% from the foul line.  Jordan Hulls went 0-fer on the night – 0 for 6, all 3-point attempts.  Cody Zeller was 3 for 11.  About half those misses were no-call muggings.  Perhaps the most telling statistics are these: 18 turnovers for Indiana, 12 steals for Syracuse along with 10 blocked shots.  Again, I contend that half of those blocks were fouls, but it doesn’t matter.  Indiana threw the ball away all night.  I can hear the wailing from South Bend to Evansville.
  • Odds To Win It All – Now might be a good time to point out that no team has ever lost the first game of its conference tournament and gone on to win a national championship.  Can you guess which two of the remaining 12 teams that iron law eliminates?  Duke and Marquette.

Contest By The Numbers

  • 256 – Number of contestants who through laziness, forgetfulness, or hubris, failed to submit any re-picks before the deadline.
  • 9 – Number of contestants who, with the benefit of the re-picks, got all four games correct this evening.  No one got all four games with original picks.
  • 5 – Number of contestants who earned the contest’s third Scategories Bonus by picking Wichita State with an original pick.
  • 12 – Number of contestants who are vying for a fourth Scategories Bonus by picking Oregon to beat Louisville tomorrow night here in Indy.  It would be historic, as 12 seeds are 0-13 against 1 seeds.
  • 1 – In the true spirit of the original Scategories Bonus, only one contestant out of 661 picked Florida Gulf Coast to make the Elite Eight with an original pick.  (Well, it is possible that others did, but if they did, they changed them in the re-pick phase, and who can blame them for doing so?)
  • 245 – Number of contestants who had Indiana winning it all.
  • 145 – Number of contestants who had Miami in the Final Four.
  • 23 – Number of contestants who picked Syracuse to make the Final Four from the beginning.
  • 117 – Number of points contest leader Josh Paddack has so far.
  • 5 – Number of points behind Josh second place contestant Drew Detamore is.
  • 0 – Number of games Gabriel Geiswhite can win for the rest of the tournament.  Gabriel gets tonight’s only award, the Lookout Below award, because there’s nowhere to go but down from here.

Tomorrow will establish the remainder of the Elite Eight and perhaps really start to indicate who the front runners are in our contest.  More news later.  Film at 11.

The Wizard of Whiteland

Contest Home Page

Round of 32 Final Report

Let’s win this game for all the small schools that never had a chance to get here. – Merle Webb, Hoosiers

Cinderella Arrives At The Dance, And She’s Got Competition

In some ways I think we all dream of this every year.  Oh, we know that in all likelihood, the big schools, the top dogs, the upper seeds – those will be the teams in the Final Four.  But we hold out hope that maybe, just maybe, plucky upstarts from the middle of nowhere will become unlikely heroes and fell the giants tall and mighty.  We’ve seen it in recent years – Butler goes to the championship game two years in a row.  VCU advances to the Final Four after starting in the First Four.  George Mason (who?) goes to the Final Four as an 11 seed under the direction of an affable Italian who now looks to guide Miami to a Final Four of its own.  This year, however, is even more historic in its potential.  We’ve not come this way before.

Tournament Firsts

Before I get into the juicy particulars, let me give you a quick rundown of this year’s Sweet Sixteen by the numbers, as it were.

  • This is the first time a 15 seed has ever appeared in the Sweet Sixteen.
  • This is the first time two teams seeded 13 or higher have ever appeared in the Sweet Sixteen in the same year.
  • This is the first time three Florida schools have appeared in the same Sweet Sixteen.
  • This is the first time two Florida schools will face each other in the NCAA Tournament.
  • This is the first time a 9 seed has ever played a 13 seed in the Sweet 16.
  • No 13 seed has ever advanced to the Elite Eight.
  • Only one 9 seed has ever advanced to the Elite Eight (1994, Boston College, beat 5 seed Indiana).  Wichita State has pretty good odds of being the second given their opponent is 13 seeded LaSalle.
  • 12 seeds have never defeated a 1 seed in 13 tries.  Oregon tries to become the first against Louisville.

Exploring New Territory

The last time LaSalle made it this far in the NCAA Tournament (1955), there was no Sweet 16.  After a drought only a Cubs fan could appreciate, LaSalle’s Tyrone Garland made the game-winning layup with 2 seconds left to “upset” the 12 seed Ole Miss and their brazen superstar Marshall Henderson.  This game was significant in that it earned 13 Contestants one of two coveted Scategories Bonuses awarded this evening.

Fly Like An Eagle

Who can say enough about 15 seed Florida Gulf Coast?  This is one of the most amazing, most feel-good (if that’s proper English, and if it isn’t, who cares?) stories in the history of March Madness.  This is no typical one-hit-wonder of a 15 seed.  After beating Georgetown in the opening round, many of us probably thought that, though rare, we’ve seen this movie before, and we know how it ends.  But this squad is different.  They’re actually GOOD basketball players.  They play a high-flying playground style that is just structured enough to be effective and just loose enough to confound opponents.  Opportunities for observations and awards abound with tonight’s historic victory by the Eagles.

  • High Flyers – Did you notice how FGC frequently sends a guy flying in from above the key whenever a shot is taken inside of 10 feet?  How many posterizing dunks and put backs do they get with this maneuver?  I am guessing that Florida is going to watch the film of these two games and make certain they put a body on Superman every time a FGC shot goes up.  Florida will also have to figure out how to prevent the tidal wave of alley oop dunks that seems to have overwhelmed both Georgetown and San Diego State. In tonight’s game, especially, it seemed as though everyone in the gym knew it was coming, and yet no one could stop it.
  • What can brown do for you?  FGC’s Sherwood Brown is one part leader, one part baller, and one part court jester.  He gets the Rolling Stones award for his signature celebration of a made basket, the sticking out of his tongue.  What a likable kid.
  • The Quote of the Day award goes to game announcer and former NBA sharp-shooter Reggie Miller who quipped, “For all you Philadelphia fans, that’s how Eagles are supposed to play!”  I hope he had an armed escort out of the arena.
  • Finally, I would be remiss to not give San Diego State an some sort of consolation prize.  The Dancing With The Stars award goes to #22 Chase Tapley, caught on camera doing a really comical jungle dance after his team made a basket when the game was still competitive.

In Other Games

After a day of yawn-inducing blowouts on Saturday, today’s offering was filled with nail-biting, heart-pounding barn burners.

  • Survive and Advance – You could hear the collective exhale in my home state of Indiana as Victor Oladipo hit the game-sealing basket to survive a Wisconsinesque upset bid by the Temple Owls.  Indiana is not known for its ability to win grind-it-out games in the 50’s.  This test bodes well for them going forward.  Temple’s superstar guard Khalif Wyatt gets the Crybaby award for his end-of-game meltdown when his team needed him most.  Though he scored 31 points, he erupted in a stream of frustrated profanity when the officials refused to apply the Michael Jordan Rule toward the end of the game.  (You know the Michael Jordan rule, right?  If I missed the shot, I got fouled.  If I fumbled the pass, I got fouled.  If I stumbled, I got fouled.  If I turned the ball over, I got fouled.  If I flinched when the defender got too close, I got fouled.  I’m obviously too good for any other explanation to make sense.)  In any case, one astute contestant, J.R. Shrader, pointed out that Wyatt refused to even guard Oladipo on his final three pointer.  That is why he was so wide open.  You just can’t do that with the game on the line, especially as a senior.  That little tantrum likely cost Temple the game.
  • There’s a Hurricane Coming – In a game where Miami ultimately prevailed, the Boneheaded Play of the Day award was earned by Miami’s Kenny Kadji, who inexplicably fouled Illinois’ Tracy Abrams 22 feet from the basket, less than 10 seconds on the shot clock, and with the game tied.  (See my previous rant on fouls late in the shot clock.)  Kadji also receives the Academy Award for an Oscar-worthy flop earlier in the game that drew a foul call on Brandon Paul.
  • The Lord of the Rings award goes to Duke’s Rasheed Sulaimon.  It should be obvious why.

Other Assorted Minutiae

  • You can charge like a rhino and separate a guy’s shoulder, and that’s not even a foul, but an incidental elbow above the shoulders is an automatic flagrant?
  • Sticking on that theme, referees will stop a game for 3, 4, or even 5 minutes to go to the monitor to “review” a random elbow to the chops.  What exactly are they reviewing?  And why does it take so long?  They then emerge from the conclave to assess a flagrant foul.  However, game-changing, easily fixed calls regarding who last touched the ball before it went out of bounds are not reviewable.  Tell me why that makes sense.
  • With 48 games played so far, we have not had a single game go into overtime.
  • The My Fair Lady award for mispronunciation goes to analyst Kenny Smith who pronounced Victor Oladipo’s name oh – la – da – PEE – doe.  That’s just turrible.

Round 2 Awards

And now, before I run completely out of gas, the final awards before we embark upon the Sweet 16.

  • The Last Laugh award goes to The Brothers Paul (Smith and Sopke) and Gabriel Geistwhite, whom I ridiculed yesterday for not winning any games.  With their collection of bonus points today, they all three now reside in the top 25.
  • The Hindenburgh award goes to Adam Regan who dropped impressively from 211th to 638th.
  • The Schizophrenia award goes to Justin Wentworth, who rank has swung wildly from as low as 653rd to as high as 83rd.  Congratulations to the both of you.
  • The It’s An Alias, Not A Blog award goes to Ben Watkins who attempted to set his alias to “I thought I really messed up my bracket. And I actually did, but thanks to Jeff’s wild scoring system I’m not doing too bad!”  Dude.
  • The Who You Callin’ Redneck award goes to Ramona Lisa Wicht, who used her alias to quip, “We DO have TVs & teeth in Mississippi.”
  • The Never Underestimate The Power Of A Good Vacation award goes to Jordyn “Big Sister” Glassley who picked Florida Gulf Coast because that is where her family is going on vacation soon.
  • The Maybe It’s Because Your Name Also Comes Last Alphabetically award goes to Mike Zimmerman, sole possessor of last place.  Poor Mike was trying to avoid the curse of the Z-name by listing himself only by his alias, Daniel Larusso.  Next year, try the crane technique.
  • The Silent But Deadly award goes to my college roommate, Ken Schmidt, who without much fanfare has crept into 15th place.
  • The Outperform award goes to Greg Hensley, whose alias reveals that the tool he used to assist in his picks guaranteed 47% correct.  His current winning percentage is just over 60%  Moody’s just upgraded him to “buy”.
  • The Despicable Me award goes to Rebecca “Fluffy” Harper, currently in 42nd.  Rebecca will receive her very own minion.
  • And finally, the Living Up To His Name award goes to new contest leader Josh “The punisher” Paddack, which sounds like either a comic book anti-hero or the latest MMA star.  Josh put on an impressive performance in the round of 32, winning 11 out of 16 games (Which was not the most, by the way.  Several contestants won 12 out of 16).  Where Josh excelled was in picking both Scategories games correctly in addition to sporting a well above average winning percentage of .750.  Josh does NOT have the most bonus points in the contest, spoiling the notion that the way to win is to throw caution to the wind and pick an outrageous number of upsets.

Re-Pick Round Begins

And now it is the moment many of you have been waiting for since about half way through day two – the re-pick round.  This is your opportunity to re-pick any of the remaining 15 games you wish.  Exquisitely detailed instructions on how to make your re-picks are published on the website here: re-pick instructions.  Please read them carefully.  Please read them thoroughly.  If you still have questions after that, feel free to send me email.  By far the biggest question I get every year on re-picks goes something like this.  “Hey Wizard, I just went to make my re-picks, and my score is wrong.  I picked Florida Gulf Coast to win, but it is showing up red in my bracket.”  No, you didn’t pick Florida Gulf Coast to win.  It is showing up red in your bracket exactly because you got that game wrong.  The reason Florida Gulf Coast is listed there is so that you can pick them to win going forward if you so desire.  Again, please read the instructions carefully.

With that it is time for me to take a 3 day, 15 hour, 19 minute break.  That’s how long you have to submit your re-picks before the Sweet 16 round of games tips off on Thursday night.  Until then, sleep well, and enjoy the Madness.

The Wizard of Whiteland

Contest Home Page

The Curse Of Number 1

Deny it to a king? Then happy low, lie down! Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown. – William Shakespeare

Shockers They Are

Behold, oh Zags, how I have loved thee.  The worst part about Gonzaga’s loss is not that I just lost my national champion.  (No, I didn’t REALLY think they would win.  I was trying to pick someone other than Louisville or Indiana to differentiate myself from the field.)  The worst part is that I now have to listen to relentless whining of the talking heads about how “I told you they didn’t deserve a #1 seed!”  Really?  Well before you make that pronouncement, consider this.  Gonzaga is just the 5th number 1 seed all time to lose to a 9 seed.  Coincidentally, they are also the 5th number 1 seed all time who was also the AP Poll #1 to lose in the round of 32.  Can you guess who the last such team was that was so ignominiously defeated?  It was none other than perennial tournament blue blood Kansas in 2010.  Kansas was a #1 seed that year and the AP #1 when they faced Northern Iowa and a unique Iranian named Ali Faroukmanesh.  And get this – Kansas was the number one overall seed that year!  So spare me the whole I-told-you-so baloney when it comes to Gonzaga.  This is March Madness.  In a single game, anyone can win.

The truth is that Wichita State played over their heads and out of their minds in this game, especially in the second half.  That doesn’t mean they didn’t “deserve” to win.  There’s no such thing as deserve in March Madness.  That’s the beauty, or perhaps the agony, of the whole thing.  Just when it seemed as though Gonzaga had finally gained control, the Shockers started raining threes like they were tossing pennies in Lake Michigan.  They made seven consecutive three point baskets in the second half.  Despite being clobbered 20-9 on the offensive glass, Wichita State won this game by shooting a blistering 50% from the field on baskets of both the 2 and 3 point variety.

Black And Blue

In the other game worth talking about from today, the plucky Butler Bulldogs would likely have pulled off the upset had it not been for one Vander Blue of Marquette.  Blue had 29 points on 9-15 shooting and a perfect 8-8 from the line.  His stellar performance not withstanding, he almost earned himself the Chris Webber Boneheaded Play Of The Day award when he tossed the ball over Jamil Wilson’s head on what should have been the game’s final out of bounds play.  This gave Butler one last possession, down 2, with 2.9 seconds to play.  Alas, there was no joy in Indy, as Andrew Smith couldn’t get squared up for a good shot.

That’s No 12 Seed

I rarely agree with Doug Gottlieb, but I must agree with him one particular point he made today.  Oregon is woefully under-seeded at 12, and it has truly messed up the entire Midwest bracket.  Instead of drawing the caliber of team they should have, both #5 Oklahoma State and #4 St. Louis got bounced early by a team more worthy of a 3 or even a 2 seed.  Bad form, selection committee.  Bad form.

Disturbing Trends

After a full Saturday’s diet of second-round action, I’ve picked up on some disturbing trends.

  • Dumb fouls late in the shot clock – What is it with teams defending well for 30 seconds only to commit some boneheaded foul 20+ feet from the basket?  I think such an emphasis is being placed on “good defense” these days that players just get too aggressive and antsy and don’t use their heads.  And speaking of aggressive defense…
  • Brutal play – Announcers like to call it “physical”.  I call it downright brutal.  If you watched any of that Louisville/Colorado State game, you’ll agree that what was being lauded as superior defense was more like assault and battery.  I’m honestly surprised no punches were thrown in that game.  In the Harvard/Arizona game, in addition to a chipped tooth, there was one particular play where so many guys were taken out by an on-court collision, the transition possession was played 4-on-3 like some sort of demented hockey power play.  Maybe we should borrow from hockey and set up a penalty box.  Sheesh.
  • Lost shoes – My son is a first grader and admittedly has trouble tying his shoes.  The rest of my children, 15 and younger and all girls, do not.  And yet the floor seems littered with shoes during this tournament.  Look, there goes Olynyk, running down the floor in his sock feet.  What’s up with that, boys?  Do you need the coaches to tie your shoes for you?  I know I’m on to something with this trend, because CBS included “Lost Shoes” in a stat graphic halfway through the Michigan State/Memphis game.
  • Quasi-camo Uniforms – I know you’re sick of this rant, but that hideous uniform design seems to be gaining popularity.
  • Cancer of the photographer – There are literally so many photographers on both end lines, there is nowhere for a player to stand and take the ball out.  If a player goes down under a basket, there’s a camera man with his big fat shoulder-mounted Sony HD Beta-max pointed right in the poor guy’s grill as he writhes around in agony.  I’m equally surprised no cameramen have been punched out in this tournament.
  • Wet floors – Clearly, we need better mop boys and girls.  I’ve seen a number of players feet go right out from under them as if they just hit a patch of ice.  Dangerous.
  • Poor shooting and low scoring – I am sure some would attribute this to the aforementioned “good defense” being played these days, but let’s face it.  There’s a whole lotta brick layin’ goin’ on out there.  Consider this – in the five games that were blowouts today, the losing teams shot 97-273 for 36%.  Contrast that with the teams that won those games.  They actually took fewer shots and were 143-269 for 53%.  I may be stating the obvious, but if you want to win a basketball game, you have to make shots.

In Other News…

  • Name Games – I usually start picking up on the players who have the funny, punny, or interesting names right about this time in the tournament.  I have already commented on Marquette’s Vander BlueMichigan State’s Nix and Payne are aptly named.  One nixes shots and the other brings the pain.
  • Dopplegangers Abound – We’ve already discussed the similarities between contestant Brock Zagel and Indiana center Cody Zeller.  Another alert contestant pointed out to me today that Florida Gulf Coast’s star player Sherwood Brown bears a striking resemblance to Baylor women’s phenom Brittney Griner.  In a slightly less flattering comparison, Memphis coach Josh Pastner evokes memories of Donnie Osmond.
  • Today’s History Maker award goes to Arizona’s Mark Lyons, the only player in NCAA history to go to the Sweet 16 in two consecutive seasons with two different teams.  Last year Mark made the Sweet 16 as a member of Xavier’s squad.
  • History Maker, Part Deux – The Atlantic 10 was the first non-power conference to start the NCAA tournament 6-0.  Well, 5-0 if you don’t count the play-in game, which I have a hard time with still, but anyway, as far as our contest accounting goes, the A10 is 5-3.
  • Surprising Success – With Wichita State’s, ahem, shocking victory over Gonzaga tonight, the Missouri Valley Conference is now an impressive 3-0 in the tournament.  There are no other undefeated conferences left in the tournament with more than one game played.
  • The Boneheaded Play of the Day award, recognized immediately by alert contestant Kip Layman, was the silly out of bounds violation committed by Gonzaga’s Elias Harris and David Stockton.  Down a single point with 3:10 to play, Harris grabbed the made free throw while out of bounds and tossed it to Stockton, who was in bounds.  Their intent, however, was simply to exchange the ball so that Stockton could actually inbound the ball, but when Stockton stepped back out, it was a violation, and the ball went back to Wichita State.  This was clearly a turning point in the game, as WSU’s Ron Baker made yet another three point basket on the ensuing possession, and Wichita State had the lead for good.

Day Three Awards

Before I put myself out of my misery over the loss of my beloved Zags, it’s time for today’s awards.

  • The Meta World Peace Award For Best New Alias goes to Mike “falling fast with a cheetah on my back” Desch.  Honorable mention goes to Jason “Hey, look! You’re kitchen’s on fire!” Roehl.  These awards were given based on the fact that they actually made me laugh out loud.
  • The Crash and Burn award goes to Richard “pickin em by geography” Goodwin who dropped from 4th to 218th.  Perhaps Richard needs a Garmin.
  • The Road Signs, Weeds, Trash, and Convicts award goes to 331st place contestant Bob “beaten favorite” Huppert.  Bob gets this award because that’s the stuff you find in the median.
  • The Typographically Challenged award goes to 50th place contestant Jamse “I can’t spell my first name” Wells.  I can fxi that four yu if u wannt, Jamse.
  • The True Fan award goes to Chelsea “Punkin Doodle” Goodwin, the only contestant who, unlike the rest of you bandwagon jumping Gonzaga haters, picked Wichita State to go to the Final Four.  Chelsea is currently in 97th place.
  • The Top Prognosticator award for today goes to Bev Thomas, Vincent Randazzo, and Cayden Bauschek, all of whom picked 7 of today’s 8 games correctly.  No one went 8-0 today.
  • The Strike Out award goes to the four contestants who DID manage to go 0-8 today, however: Paul Sopke, Paul Smith, Gabriel Geistwhite, and Margaret Dean.
  • Finally, the Keep This Up And You’ll Be Less Popular Than Duke award goes to ongoing contest leader Kasiah Hand.  Despite having 23 losses to just 17 victories, Kasiah has more bonus points than anyone else in the contest right now (72).  Tune in tomorrow to see if anyone can unseat her from her perch atop the contest.

With that, I’m off to grab some shut eye for church tomorrow and canned goods for the impending Palm Sunday Blizzard of 2013.  If your bracket is trashed liked mine, do not despair.  The Re-pick Round starts on Monday.

Madly yours,

The Wizard of Whiteland

Contest Home Page

Day Two Wrap Up

How are the mighty fallen, and the weapons of war perished! – 2 Samuel 1:27

Upset Special

It may seem like this year’s tournament had more first round upsets than most, but this is not the case.  2001 still holds the record in that department with 13 lower seeded teams winning one of the first 32 games.  This year’s total was 10, which is still a lot.

  • Tonight’s History Maker award is shared between the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles and the Harvard Crimson.  Florida Gulf Coast was not the first 15 seed to beat a 2, certainly.  Two 15 seeds won within hours of each other last year.  What FGC did that was historic was win a game as a 15 seed in their second year of NCAA Division I eligibility.  Harvard made history by winning their first ever NCAA Tournament game.
  • The Christmas Story Pink Nightmare award goes to the Notre Dame Fighting Fashion Models.  Ok, I know I have been harping on this whole ugly uniform thing this year, but how can any team be expected to play tournament-winning basketball while wearing women’s pajamas?  I don’t care what anyone says or what rationale anyone gives and what counter-argument anyone offers.  Those Notre Dame uniforms are women’s pajamas, period.  Watching them take the floor is reminiscent of that scene from the holiday classic, A Christmas Story, where Ralphie comes downstairs in the full-body pink bunny suit pajamas his aunt had made him for Christmas.  The best thing the Notre Dame coaching staff could have done for that team at half time is give them different uniforms.  At least then they could walk off the floor with their dignity, win or lose.
  • The Hand Grenades and Horseshoes award goes to the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers who led #1 seed Kansas by one point at the half.  It was a valiant effort at history.  Alas, it was not to be, as Kansas center Jeff Withey earned …
  • The Dikembe Mutombo award with 6 rebounds and an astounding 7 blocked shots.  Near the end of the game I heard the announcers proclaim that WKU was held to 13% shooting from the field in the second half.  Speaking of poor shooting…
  • Kansas was the first team to win an NCAA tournament game without making a single 3 point basket since Arizona did it in 2001.  Weirdly, this seems to be a good omen for Kansas, as the last two teams to accomplish this feat both advanced to the national championship game!  (UConn in 1999 and Arizona in 2001).  In fact, it gets even more bizarre.  Kansas won this game despite making just one…yes, O-N-E…basket outside the paint!  They were 1-13 shooting outside the lane.  Holy brick layers, Batman!

And Now For Something Totally Random

  • The Reggie Miller Choke Artist award goes to Cincinnati’s Shaquille Thomas who, after being on the receiving end of a flagrant foul, missed both foul shots with his team down 6 and 54 seconds to play.  And speaking of flagrant fouls…
  • The Stupidest Rule In College Basketball award has to go to this zero-tolerance policy with regard to contact above the shoulders with the elbows.  Generally speaking, I am not a proponent of zero-tolerance policies in virtually context, as they take judgment and reason completely out of the equation, instead favoring often draconian letter-of-the-law penalties that make no sense.  Exhibit A happened during the game between UCLA and Minnesota.  Minnesota’s Oto Osenieks clearly fouled UCLA’s Tony Parker in the act of shooting.  It was a hard but clean foul.  Parker, who was getting hammered on both arms by Osenieks, extended those arms up in the air to be sure to demonstrate he was in the act of shooting.  In doing so, his elbow inadvertently contacted Osenieks’ head, the player who fouled him.  Off go the refs to the replay monitor.  Sure enough, they return with the assessment of a flagrant one foul on Parker.  Remember, Parker is the dude who just got hammered by the defender in the act of shooting.  Zero tolerance.  Zero sense.

And Now A Word From Our Sponsors

Watch enough March Madness and you start to see the same commercials multiple times.  The following is a short list of my observations so far.

  • The DirectTV Genie Commercials where the principle characters portray outrageous analogies to illustrate their hatred for cable very likely can be applied to how many of you feel about my contest.  It’s more annoying than sitting next to a ventriloquist’s dummy on an airplane, more infuriating than being tied up in the woods and tortured by clowns, more disheartening than watching your pet chihuahua being snatched up by a predatory hawk.
  • Anyone besides me notice just how strangely creepy the background music is in that “Blind Date” commercial for Bud Light?  You know, the one where the dude says, “Those are my friends hitting on your friends?”  Listen to the music the next time it comes on.  It’s sounds like some kind of spooky, ritualistic drum cadence from the Shaka Zulu movie.
  • By far my favorite series of commercials these days are the AT&T commercials where the man quizzes different sets of kids on “Which is better?”  While “tape a cheetah to her back” will probably be my all-time favorite quip from these commercials, the little girl’s rant about wanting more rather than less is also outstanding.  And remember, to be fast is better than to be bitten by a werewolf!  Oh yeah, and Nicky rhymes with flash.
  • The Applebee’s add featuring Bobby Knight and Digger Phelps is terrific.  “That’s not how you throw a chair,” Knight deadpans.
  • While I find them generally unfunny and downright annoying, the latest commercial for Sonic with the two buddies who just can’t seem to grow up and get a clue actually made me laugh out loud.  If you haven’t seen it, the guys are crouched down in the back of a convertible, eating their sundaes from Sonic.  When buddy number one asks buddy number two why they are hiding, he says it is because his wife doesn’t want him eating dessert without him.  Buddy number one then offers to be the lookout, saying he will squawk like a bird if he spots buddy number two’s wife.  About that time, said wife walks by, sundae in hand, and says pleasantly, “Hi, honey,” at which point buddy number one dutifully squawks.  Perfect.

Ok, that’s enough of that foolishness.

Day Two Awards

It’s time to hand out the day two awards.

  • The annual Upset Stomach Award, sponsored by Larry the Cable Guy, goes to the three contestants who picked all 10 first round upsets: Paul Sopke, Paul Smith, and Kasiah Hand.  Now, the brother’s Paul guaranteed this outcome by picking ALL upsets for every first round game.  This is not a winning strategy, of course, because it severely limits their ability to win any games this weekend.  Kasiah, on the other hand, seems to have taken a more strategic approach.  We shall see how it plays out.
  • The round one Top Prognosticator award goes to Jim Swank, the contestant with the best winning percentage so far.  Jim is 27-5 and currently in 15th place.
  • The Biggest Loser award, sponsored by Subway, goes to Jamie Fairchild, who climbed as high as 23rd only to drop to 198th.  Jamie will receive an autographed picture of Jared and a five dollar footlong.
  • The Rising Star award goes to Vanessa Sopke who has clawed her way from 627th up to 80th.
  • The Cheater’s Never Prosper award goes to Campbell Inskeep, who is actually Nathan Inskeep’s toddler son.  Since Campbell is incapable of speaking or even pointing in response to “which team do you want to win,” these picks are, in reality, Nathan’s riskier bracket in disguise.  I would like to take this opportunity to reiterate official rule 27, section 2, subsection A, paragraph ii, line 7, which states, quote, “Though shalt not circumvent rule 26, section 1, subsection B, which states that only one entry per person shall be deemed valid and eligible for the contest, by entering a second bracket in the name of ones offspring if said offspring has not reached sufficient age as to engage in meaningful, verbal communication.”  That’s a two stroke penalty for you, Nathan.  Don’t let it happen again.
  • The Double Take award goes to Anthony Spuches and, well, Anthony Spuches!  At first I thought that a single Anthony Spuches had entered twice (in clear violation of rule 26, section 1, subsection B) until I noticed that one Anthony is 12 and under and the other is 40 to 49.  I’m guessing this is a father-son duo.  Admittedly, my contest database doesn’t deal with identically named individuals very well.  Put that down for next year’s upgrade.
  • The Best Contest Related Facebook Post award goes to Audrey Bateson, currently tied for 515th: “Greatest accomplishment today – beating Luke in the March Madness contest!!”  Luke Bateson, her son, is currently tied for 633rd.
  • The Louis Armstrong award goes to Evan Gidley, the jazz musician currently ranked an impressive 30th in the contest.  See the contest Facebook page for an excellent news piece on Evan and his fellow musicians.
  • The Cynical Quote Of The Day award goes to Brad Schafer, currently tied for 189th.  Brad emailed me the following quip this afternoon.  “[Wisconsin coach] Bo Ryan looks like a combo mafia/tv evangelist reject, and his team plays like they’ve never heard of any sport at all.”  Published with (muted) apologies to Badger fans everywhere.
  • The Honorable Mention award goes to three contestants who spent time at number one in our contest at some point after the completion of the 16th game but have since dropped in the rankings: Amber Little, Brock Zagel, and Jacob Deaver.
  • The Dishonorable Discharge award goes to three contestants who spent time in dead last in our contest at some point after the completion of the 16th game: David Vandre, Ryan Schneckloth, and Fess Bryson.
  • The Are You Smarter Than A Kindergartner award goes to five-year-old Drew Detamore, currently in second place in the contest with 74 points.
  • Finally, the Pole Position award goes to current contest leader Kasiah Hand.  As I mentioned earlier, she has employed a rather interesting strategic mix of choosing all upsets for certain seeds but sticking with “safer” picks for later games.  As such, she has 79 points but a winning percentage of only 0.469.  Could it be that Kasiah has Jeff’s contest “figured out”?  We’ll see where she sits after the weekend.  In the meantime, Kasiah will receive an autographed photo of Danicka Patrick for her efforts.

It’s been a fun first two days of the contest, but I must say, I’m exhausted.  Maybe that has something to do with the fact that it’s 3:30 AM.  The Facebook page has added a pleasant new dynamic to the contest, and the 661 entries (I ended up deleting one duplicate entry brought to my attention by a conscientious contestant) certainly make my job more interesting, if not more time consuming.  I appreciate everyone’s kind emails, tweets, and posts, and I laugh at the good-natured jabs, too.  Keep ’em coming!

With that, I step back behind the curtain.

The Wizard of Whiteland

Contest Home Page

Quick Game Thoughts

I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve. – Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto

Quick Game Thoughts

Sorry folks, I have a wedding to perform, so there’s no time for awards.  (I’m completely serious.  I have a wedding to perform at 7:30 EDT.)  I do have a few quick game thoughts to share from this afternoon, though.

  • Help, we have a fashion emergency! I am convinced that both the Albany Great Danes and Cincinnati Bearcats were done in more by the hideous nature of their uniforms than the inferiority of their play.  Albany’s bright purple unis coupled with bright yellow socks were surpassed (if that’s the right word) only by the bizarre combination of hot pink numbers and trim with strangely demure camouflage shorts of Cincinnati.  This must be what happens when you put fashion designers rather than athletes in charge of gear selection.
  • Tape a cheetah to their backs.  Could anyone play slower than Wisconsin?  Apparently so.  Today the usually high-scoring, fast-paced Ole Miss Rebels actually out-Wisconsined Wisconsin and won a low-scoring, grinder of a game.  As I watched that game, a couple of thoughts kept running through my head.  One was, “This is the team that has beaten Indiana a dozen or more times in a row?”  The second hearkened back to my childhood growing up in southern Indiana.  Some folks refer to Wisconsin as “Wisky”, which makes me think of the old Seagrums plant in Lawrenceburg we used to drive by on our way to King’s Island when I was a kid.  All I remember about Lawrenceburg is how badly that Whisky plant stunk.  Same can be said for this game today.
  • Ain’t nobody got time for that.  At the end of a tight game between NC State and Temple, State’s C.J. Leslie was reluctant to foul with about 6 seconds left to play due to his four fouls.  The thing is NC State was down and needed to foul to stop the clock.  If the game were closer, this would be the Boneheaded Play of the Day.
  • Epic comeback, epic defeat.  Thirteen seed LaSalle had to beat Boise State on Wednesday just to get the opportunity to play Kansas State today.  They came out in the first half and absolutely owned the Wildcats, leading by as many as 19 at one point.  After halftime, KState’s giant of a center Henriquez came out and played like someone had insulted his mother.  In fact, the entire KState team played that way.  They completely steamrolled the shell-shocked Explorers and actually took a couple of one or two-point leads late in the game.  Finally, in a I’m-not-sure-what-happened sequence, KState reverted to their first half selves and looked completely incapable of doing anything right.  After sending LaSalle to the foul line for the go-ahead points, State couldn’t get a time out called nor anything resembling a descent shot off, and LaSalle fulfilled their destiny as this year’s only 13 seed to win.
  • The Boneheaded Play of the Day award goes to Creighton’s Doug McDermott who foolishly committed an offensive flagrant foul with his team up four and about a minute to play.  Fortunately for the Blue Jays, Cincinnati was unable to capitalize on the blunder, and Creighton survives to face Duke this weekend.

And now I’m off to pronounce some young friends man and wife.  Look for the day two awards late tonight.

The Wizard of Whiteland

Contest Home Page

Day Two Midday Musings

If you see a bandwagon, it’s too late. – James Goldsmith

Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Results

Folks, be careful before you jump on the “See, I told you Gonzaga is overrated” bandwagon.  That refrain is rising to a crescendo because the Zags struggled to dispatch 16 seed Southern yesterday.  But to assume that 1 seed having trouble with its first opponent is indicative of unworthiness of its seeding or an imminent early exit may not be entirely accurate.  Consider these examples.

  • In 1989 #1 seed Georgetown narrowly defeated #16 Princeton 50-49.  Georgetown advanced to the Elite Eight that year, losing to Duke 85-77.
  • The very next year, #1 Michigan State beat #16 Murray State 75-71 in overtime.  They advanced to the Sweet Sixteen and lost by one point (on a buzzer beater, if memory serves) to Georgia Tech 81-80.
  • Though not as close in the final score, the 1986 Duke team let Mississippi Valley State hang around until near the very end and yet made it all the way to the championship game before losing to Louisville.  In addition, 1989 Illinois, 1997 North Carolina, and 2002 Kansas each survived a relative first round scare and ended up advancing to the Final Four.

At the same time, sometimes an early struggle does spell trouble for a #1 seed.  In fact, no #1 seed that went to OT or won in regulation by less than 13 pointes against its #16 seed opponent has ever gone on to win a national championship.  But a first round blowout is no guarantee of success, either.  In the infamous 2000 tournament where two #8 seeds made the Final Four, both #1 seed Stanford and #1 seed Arizona pummeled their #16 seed opponents, winning by a combined 43 points.  Both teams went down two days later in the round of 32.

Keys To March Madness Success

So why is it that the NCAA Tournament is so hard to predict?  Why do stone cold, lead pipe locks lose and beyond-improbable underdogs win?  I think there are number of factors to consider.

Conference Affiliation Doesn’t Matter

Teams spend the last half of their season playing their conference schedules.  They play the same teams, often multiple times, in both the regular season and their conference tournaments.  Their selection to the NCAA Tournament field is often based largely are their relative performance in their conference and, therefore, the relative perceived strength of the conference in which they played.  But once the Big Dance begins, these conference affiliations become irrelevant.  In fact, they can often be problematic, not only for the teams, but also for prognosticators, and here’s why.

Different Officials

As I said, you spend the last half or more of your season playing the same teams in the same conference with the same relatively small pool of officials.  Teams grow accustomed to the style of play within their conference, and that absolutely includes the way in which the game is officiated.  Teams learn what the officials generally will and will not allow them to get away with.  However, the NCAA Tournament assigns officiating crews based on merit.  Suddenly a team that dominated their conference all season lands in a game officiated by a crew that won’t let them play the physical style they’ve grown accustomed to, or conversely, allows their opponent to play way more physically than they are accustomed to.  I am not saying that officials purposely influence a game’s outcome.  I am saying that teams are sometimes suddenly forced to adjust to an officiating style they haven’t had to deal with for two months or more.  An underdog’s success can very much be aided by drawing an officiating crew that caters to their style of play.

Unknown Opponents

In your conference season, you have weeks if not months to prepare for every game.  Opponent’s strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies are well known.  But once the tournament gets rolling, you might have 48 hours to prepare for a team you’ve never seen before in your life.  The fact that they are, on paper, inferior in terms of talent can often be offset by an unfamiliar and perhaps uncomfortable style of play.  Couple that with an officiating crew that favors your opponent’s style over yours, and you have a one-two punch that can spell upset in a hurry.

Coaching

It has been said that professional supports are about the players, and college sports are about the coach.  This is as true of basketball as it is of any other sport.  While it is not a fair generalization that all NBA players care nothing about team or winning championships, but in general, the nature of the pro game is such that the players are the focal point of everything.  They have the large contracts.  They attract the fans for the owners.  They play for their jobs and the opportunity to make more money.  The NBA coach is there to provide general direction and manage the egos of his assortment of superstars.

Contrast that with college basketball.  Sure, there are a few future pros who are playing for the watching NBA scouts, but they comprise a relatively small percentage of the players in the 64-team field.  The rest will never receive a dime for playing basketball, but the coach for whom they play is paid millions to make the team a living form of uber-advertising for the university.  These players love their coach and each other like family, and because of their immaturity and inexperience, the coach’s influence over the game’s outcome cannot be overstated.  College players, for the most part, are playing for a single shot at glory.  The memory of a championship or even an unlikely upset over a superior team is the only compensation they will ever receive for playing the game.

This is why you see things like what we saw in the post-game press conference with Pittsburgh coach Jamie Dixon star player Tray Woodall breaking down into tears after their loss to Wichita State.  These guys follow their generals into war.  As such, the coaching is important factor to consider when trying to predict a game winner.  You think the fact that Harvard had Tommy Amaker, former point guard for Duke, former assistant at Duke, former head coach at Seton Hall and Michigan, as a coach didn’t have something to do with their first ever NCAA win?  Think again.  As I am fond of saying, never bet against Tom Izzo in March.

It’s All About The Match Ups

Put all this together, and, ultimately, it is all about the match ups.  If you are an ESPN Insider like me (which isn’t as impressive as it sounds – it just means you have $4.95 a month to flush down the toilet), you have access to some statistical analysis tools that give you some idea of the likelihood of any team winning any game in the tournament.  What is interesting to me is how simply changing a team’s possible opponent can change that team from a “Strong Favorite” to an “Upset Alert”.  Style, tendencies due to conference play, coaching, strengths, weaknesses, and just plain luck (which is always a factor in sport) all go into the mix in determining the eventual victor.  Attempting to predict the outcome of 63 games is, in a very real sense of the word, madness of the most mathematically absurd kind.

Parting Thoughts

It will be interesting to see what unlikely heros and goats emerge from today’s docket of 16 games.  The great thing about my contest is that your fortunes can change, for better or worse, with a single game.  Enjoy the madness!

The Wizard of Whiteland

Contest Home Page

Day One Wrap Up

Every kid coming out of Harvard, every kid coming out of school now thinks he can be the next Mark Zuckerberg, and with these new technologies like cloud computing, he actually has a shot. – Marc Andreessen

Upset Specials

While the morning games had little to offer in terms of upsets outside of Oregon, the evening was much more interesting.

  • Golden Bears Run Out The Rebels – The much-maligned Pac-12 continued its strong showing as 12 seed California ran the 5 seed UNLV Runnin’ Rebels out of the dance.  The Elias Sports Bureau reports that UNLV is the 3rd team ever to lose 4 straight games in the round of 64 as the better seed.  Translation: perennial loser.
  • Mountain Worst Can’t Shake the Label – Historically the Mountain West has performed poorly in the NCAA Tournament.  The conference rarely records more than one win in a single tournament, and while they have had a couple of Sweet 16 appearances in the last 5 years (UNLV in 2007 and San Diego State in 2011), the last truly successful Mountain West team was Larry Johnson’s UNLV teams of 1990 and 1991.  This year the selection committee gave a lot of love to the Mountain West, selecting five teams for the field of 68.  So far they are 1-3, with New Mexico suffering the most shocking defeat, which brings me to…
  • Harvard Law – Harvard had never won an NCAA Tournament game…ever…until about two hours ago when they defeated Steve Alford’s New Mexico Lobos in impressive fashion.  Harvard never trailed in this game, and New Mexico looked absolutely flustered.  NBA star Jeremy Lin’s alma matre gave us the biggest upset so far in our contest – a 14 over a 3 – for a total of twelve points for 64 prescient contestants who picked them.
  • They Put the 12 in Pac-12 – By the way, this year’s Pac-12 became the first conference ever to field multiple teams seeded 12 or lower to win more than one game in a single tournament.  “And the horse you rode in on, selection committee.”

Big Blowouts

While today had its share of heart-pounding nail biters, it also had a number of head-shaking beat downs.

  • Havoc – That’s what they call VCU’s style of defense, and boy did they wreak it upon the upset-minded Akron Zips today.  VCU’s 46-point margin of victory was the largest ever by a team seeded 3 or lower in tournament history.  That record lasted about an hour until…
  • Orange You Glad You Didn’t Pick Montana? – Right, Seth Davis?  The CBS analyst took Montana as a surprise upset pick.  Instead, 4th seeded Syracuse broke the aforementioned VCU’s record by thumping Montana by 47 points.

Other Trivia

  • True Blue – Marquette’s Vander Blue saved the day by hitting the go-ahead layup with one second remaining to beat Davidson.  Believe it or not, this was the first game-tying or game-winning shot made in the final 10 seconds of a tournament game in the past two seasons.  Prior to Blue’s successful attempt, players missed the previous 22 such attempts.
  • Even StevensButler’s Brad Stevens is 12-4 all time in the Big Dance.  The only coaches with better records in their first 16 NCAA tournament appearances are Tom Izzo and Steve Fisher.
  • Stop Thief! – Louisville’s Russ Smith had record-tying eight steals in their victory over North Carolina A&T.

Day One Awards

Without further ado, here are the day one awards.

  • The If You Both Were The Same, One Of You Would Be Unnecessary award goes to husband and wife duo Eusi “Guess a lot” and Nicholette “Haven’t got a clue” Fraser.  Eusi is currently tied for 4th with 38 points.  Apparently he guesses correctly a lot.  Nicholette is in sole possession of next to last.  Apparently she really doesn’t have a clue.
  • The I Hate This Stupid Scoring System award goes to Nathan Stratton, who complained via Facebook that he lost a single game and dropped from 1st to 119th.
  • The I Love This Awesome Scoring System award goes to Traci Murray, who rejoiced via Facebook that she was in 10th.  “You ask me how?  I just don’t know.”  Her time at 10th was short-lived.  She is now tied for 48th.
  • The Wizard’s Apprentice award goes to my daughter, Amber “thebomb.com” Little, who picked the Harvard game and sits tied for 4th.
  • The What Were You Thinking? award goes to 3rd place contestant Kristen “Ohio Who?” Perkins.  Kristen has an impressive 14 wins, but her two losses were 14 seeds Valpo and Montana.  In fact, Kristen picked all four 14 seeds to win.  This must have been part of her strategy, as that has never happened before.
  • The Remind Me Never To Pick Belmont Again award goes to Anthony “TheBracketKing” Spuches, in second place with 14 wins.
  • And finally, the Yellow Jersey award goes to the contest leader after day one, Jacob “Skylander Master” Deaver.  Jacob posted an impressive 15-1 record, losing only the minor upset of Wichita State over Pittsburgh.  Jacob will receive 1 million surplus Live Strong bracelets from Lance Armstrong’s private collection.

And that’s a wrap for day one of this year’s madness.  One exhausted contest manager is signing off to recharge batteries and prepare for another day of exciting hoops action.  Have an insight, quip, wise crack, or amusing observation of your own to share?  Post it on the contest Facebook page, easily accessible from the contest website.

Stepping behind the curtain,

The Wizard of Whiteland

Contest Home Page

What’s In A Name?

Nicknames stick to people, and the most ridiculous are the most adhesive. ~Thomas C. Haliburton

Midday Quick Hitters

There were only two upsets in the first eight games, though #9 Wichita States’s victory over #8 Pittsburgh is an upset in name only.  The other might have been the most predictable upset in the entire tournament, the grossly underseeded Oregon Ducks defeating Oklahoma State.

Pass The Pepto

One of the games I wrestled with at length as I was making my picks was #3 Marquette vs #14 Davidson.  The statistical analyses had Marquette pegged as a likely upset victim due to their woeful three point shooting.  Sure enough, with less than two minutes left in the game, I was tweeting of my own cowardice in deciding to go with Marquette.  Then the Golden Eagles literally snatched victory right from the gaping jaws of defeat, hitting three three-pointers in the final minute for the improbable comeback and one point victory.

Road Warriors

Another upset that almost was belonged to the St. Mary’s Gaels.  Listen, I’ll take the Memphis Tigers in a slam dunk contest any day, but I am firmly convinced that had St. Mary’s not played on Tuesday, got stuck in the airport overnight, been up until 3:00 AM today, and played this afternoon anyway, they would have won.  After banking in a three pointer to pull within two with just a few seconds left, St. Mary’s forced a Memphis turnover, giving them the ball on their end of the floor with 1.9 seconds left.  Matthew Dellavedova took the final shot, a three pointer for the win, but his fatigue was evident, and he overcompensated, hoisting an air ball beyond the rim.  My point is that if Memphis nearly loss to a half-dead, jet-lagged, utterly exhausted team that played less than 36 hours earlier, they are going nowhere in this tournament.

Crazy Eights

Fourty-three (43) contestants picked the first eight games correctly today.  They share the lead with 16 points.  Tonight’s games should provide a little more separation in the standings.

Alias Awards

Ok, folks, it’s the moment you’ve all been waiting for.  I have poured over the 400+ aliases and selected those most worthy of recognition.  As contestant Angie Davis texted me earlier this week, “I can’t think of a good alias, and that’s the only thing that matters!”  Some days I think the contest has become more about picking a good alias than picking game winners.

There seemed to be several Duck Dynasty references this year, and while I am sure these are amusing to fans of the show, they are lost on me.  I’ve never seen an episode.  I realize that is anathema to rednecks everywhere, but hey, I’m busy.

Also used more than once was the Internet meme, “Ain’t nobody got time for dat.”  That’s played out.  I ain’t got time for that.

So, before we get to the awards, there are several aliases I thought worthy of a retort.

  • Daphne “What’s seeds to do with it” Allender – Ask Tina Turner.
  • Jon “What does ‘Boiler Up’ mean?” Blair – Play poorly?
  • Scott “Like a Broken Clock” Booher – Going for two wins a day, I guess.
  • Sonny “Stuck in SEC Land” Clair – You have my sympathy.
  • Steven “counting on beginner’s luck” Clair – That strategy seems pretty sketchy.
  • Wendy “Again? I’m doing this again?” Cooper – You can’t win.  You can’t lose.  You can’t even quit the game.
  • Kirk “Captain of MEF” Daniels – I’m givin’ er all she’s got, cap’n!
  • Allen “Winter is Coming” Davidson – Winter never left.  In fact, it seems a blizzard is coming to Indiana on Sunday.
  • Jim “I’ve been waiting for 20 years” Davis – Let’s hope the wait is over.
  • Rebecca “PrettyJerseyPicker” Davis – You must be a Cincinnati fan.
  • Rob “104 years isn’t” Fair – Spoken like a Cubs fan.
  • Steven “I’m not crazy, my mother had me tested” Fifield – They don’t call it March Madness for nothing.
  • Bradley “No pinching OK?” Geistwhite – Ok.
  • Evan “Who would bet against Butler?” Gidley – About 118 contestants.
  • Eric “Goats to the left” Gruss – Sheep to the right.
  • Sarah “I’m back” Hand – Thanks for the warning.
  • Spencer “Stole the Bracket Answer Key” Hofer – Wait, there’s an answer key?
  • Phillip “Boilermaker till the End” Huneck – The end is near.
  • Ada “When in doubt, askt eh voices in my head” Lam – What did they say?
  • Dawn “OICURSB2?” Lamb – Oh, I see you are WHAT, too?  I don’t get it.
  • Tom “RU4IU2” Lannan – Yes I am.
  • Kip “Even if I lose, I still live in Hawaii” Layman – Don’t rub it in.
  • Graham “the cracker” Little – What else would his alias be?
  • Kim “Dead Last Finish is better than DNS!” Livingston – That’s looking at the bright side.
  • Mark “Watford’s Beard” O’Maley – That’s just funny.
  • Veronica “No one can spell Geistwhite” Ramirez – Except for Brad, of course.
  • Darren “Glad I didn’t buy Indy Regional Tickets” Renier – Mine were given to me.
  • Nathan “ND’sChancesAreAsRealAsMantiTe’o’sGF” Richards – Wait, she’s not real?
  • Frank “Too many Randazzos in this pool” Riviera – They do seem to be multiplying.
  • Heather “Kiss Me, I’m Batman” Schafer – I don’t think my wife would approve.
  • Jason “Mac” Snyder – I’m a PC.
  • Paul “Last Place Is The New First Place” Sopke – Good, because that’s where you’re headed.
  • Mike “I’ve Never Lost to Jeff in Axis & Allies” White – Rematch!
  • Jordan “I’m not good at this” Wise – Neither am I.
  • Ryanne “I hope I’m a good guesser” Wise – Don’t we all.
  • Chris “The Wizard of Pittsburgh” Wright – There’s only room for ONE Wizard in this contest!
  • Adam “Where are my Boilers?” Yoder – Check one of those OTHER post season tournaments.

Honorable Mentions

Before I announce this year’s best alias, I want to recognize a few of the really clever ones.  It was difficult to pick a winner.

The Burma Shave Award

This award goes to two families in the contest, the Fairchilds and Risners, who used the alphabetical nature of the contestants list to assemble clever quip reminiscent of the roadside Burma Shave signs.  The Risner offering is, “Hello. My name…is Inigo…Montoya…You killed…my father…Prepare to die.”  The Fairchild version was even better, because Bob Fairchild is NOT a member of that family.  Undeterred, they used it to their advantage.  “I can’t believe…Bob Fairchild…interrupted our…chance to…make a…GREAT Alias…catch phrase!”  Classic!

Best Puns

  • Angie “victorious secret” Crone –
  • Ben “Ola Depot” Crone
  • Heather “Metaphors be with you” Hearne – Let the Wookie win!
  • Rick “Dunk ‘n GoNuts” Morgan
  • Madeline “I mustache you a question?” Muschalik
  • Nanette “Aunt Toinette” Pummell – Off with her head!
  • Chuck “‘Older’ dipo” Sage
  • Matt “Dr Jan Itor” Thurber
  • Scott “Constance Noring” Whitlow

Best Use of One’s Own Name

  • Tim “The Tool” Mandara – More power! Ho ho ho!
  • Jason “My Picks Are F” Roehl – Hint: Roehl sounds like Rail.
  • Brian “I hope my picks don’t flounder!” Trout
  • Ramona “Ramona from Iona” Wicht

Other Superlatives

  • The Best Use of a Literary Reference award goes to Mark “LesMiserablesPicks” Wynn If only Mrs. Zimmerman could see you now.
  • The Shameless Self-Promotion award Chris “1dayroofing.com” Johnson.  See him for all your roofing needs.
  • The Funniest Use of a Stupid Internet Meme award goes to Garrison “Harlem Shakes because its scared of ME!” Cooper.
  • The Howard Hughes Award For Sheer Paranoia goes to Anon “IDontWantTheGovernment2knowMyPicksMan” Emus.  Whoever you are, I don’t work for the government.
  • The Best Variation of a Children’s Rhyme award goes to Misty “Weenie Mimi Whiny Mo” Stepro, which is truly hilarious for those of us who know her personally.
  • The Politics of Spin award goes to Jamie “the sequester forces accuracy cuts” Prime.  Next thing you know he’ll be blaming losses by specific teams on the sequester.

Top 5

And now for the top five aliases in this year’s contest.

5. Blake “IwearTheCandyStripedPantsInThisFamily” Dieringer.  I really must insist that a picture be posted on the contest Facebook page as proof.

4. Bob “Sting like a butterfly Punch like a flea” Johnson.

3. Trevis “Hey, UK? Hoosiers fans are!” Litherland.  I’ll admit it took me a minute, but I finally “got it”.

2. Brock “Cody Zeller’s doppleganger” Zagel.  If you knew Brock, you’d understand how funny this really is.  Let me put it to you this way.  Not only do they look alike in the face (as much as two men 25 years apart in age can look alike), but if you closed your eyes and listened to them both speak, you would not be able to distinguish them from one another.  I’m completely serious.

1. After months of posturing and intense lobbying, and as much as I wanted to give it to someone else out of sheer irritation, Ryan Helton really does have the best alias this year: My plumber is a cracketologist.  This is a superb mix of portmanteau, pun, and March Madness tie-in  Well done, Ryan.  Mission accomplished.

And now it’s back to the TVs for tonight’s games.  Look for the final day one commentary and awards in your inbox tomorrow morning.

The Wizard of Whiteland

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